Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

IND

75%

JAX

25%

Predicted winner

IND

Confidence

52%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

0–24

Winner JAX. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring−0.5 IND
• Home field+0.4 JAX
• Scoring differential−0.2 IND
• Interception rate−0.2 IND