Houston Texans at Denver Broncos

Before kickoff

HOU

25%

DEN

75%

Predicted winner

DEN

Confidence

51%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

9–16

Winner DEN. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Rushing defense+0.5 DEN
• Home field+0.4 DEN
• Passing defense+0.3 DEN
• Points allowed−0.2 HOU