New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Before kickoff

NE

58%

MIA

42%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

63%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

24–33

Winner MIA. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 MIA
• Passing defense−0.4 NE
• Scoring−0.4 NE
• Points allowed+0.2 MIA