Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Before kickoff

KC

64%

DEN

36%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

67%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

28–24

Winner KC. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 DEN
• Scoring−0.6 KC
• QB yards/attempt−0.4 KC
• Passing offense+0.4 DEN