Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

IND

85%

JAX

15%

Predicted winner

IND

Confidence

82%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

11–26

Winner JAX. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 JAX
• Scoring−0.8 IND
• Points allowed+0.4 JAX
• Rushing defense−0.4 IND