Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets

Before kickoff

TB

85%

NYJ

15%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

82%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

28–24

Winner TB. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 NYJ
• Scoring−0.8 TB
• Rushing defense−0.7 TB
• Points allowed+0.5 NYJ