Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals

Before kickoff

KC

52%

CIN

48%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

58%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

31–34

Winner CIN. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 CIN
• Rushing defense+0.2 CIN
• Scoring−0.2 KC
• Passing offense+0.1 CIN