Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons

Before kickoff

DET

37%

ATL

63%

Predicted winner

ATL

Confidence

65%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

16–20

Winner ATL. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 ATL
• Rushing defense+0.2 ATL
• QB yards/attempt+0.1 ATL
• Passing offense−0.1 DET