Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts

Before kickoff

TB

56%

IND

44%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

58%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

38–31

Winner TB. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 IND
• Passing offense+0.4 IND
• Rushing defense−0.4 TB
• Offensive touchdowns−0.3 TB