Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Before kickoff

CHI

54%

DET

46%

Predicted winner

CHI

Confidence

57%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

16–14

Winner CHI. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 DET
• Points allowed+0.3 DET
• Rushing defense−0.3 CHI
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 CHI