Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

Before kickoff

KC

45%

LV

55%

Predicted winner

LV

Confidence

56%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

41–14

Winner KC. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 LV
• Passing defense+0.2 LV
• Turnovers+0.2 LV
• Offensive touchdowns−0.2 KC