New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers

Before kickoff

NE

45%

CAR

55%

Predicted winner

CAR

Confidence

55%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

24–6

Winner NE. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 CAR
• Passing defense+0.2 CAR
• Scoring−0.2 NE
• Rushing defense+0.1 CAR