Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers

Before kickoff

CHI

30%

PIT

70%

Predicted winner

PIT

Confidence

65%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

27–29

Winner PIT. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 PIT
• Passing offense−0.4 CHI
• Scoring+0.2 PIT
• Points allowed−0.2 CHI