Washington Commanders at Denver Broncos

Before kickoff

WAS

49%

DEN

51%

Predicted winner

DEN

Confidence

51%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

10–17

Winner DEN. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 DEN
• Passing defense+0.3 DEN
• Points allowed−0.3 WAS
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 WAS