San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears

Before kickoff

SF

48%

CHI

52%

Predicted winner

CHI

Confidence

51%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

33–22

Winner SF. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 CHI
• Passing offense+0.4 CHI
• Scoring−0.4 SF
• Passing defense−0.2 SF