New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers

Before kickoff

NE

35%

LAC

65%

Predicted winner

LAC

Confidence

60%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

27–24

Winner NE. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 LAC
• Rushing defense−0.4 NE
• Points allowed+0.3 LAC
• Passing defense+0.3 LAC