Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Before kickoff

CAR

32%

ATL

68%

Predicted winner

ATL

Confidence

62%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

19–13

Winner CAR. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 ATL
• Passing defense−0.5 CAR
• Points allowed+0.3 ATL
• QB yards/attempt+0.3 ATL