Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins

Before kickoff

ATL

73%

MIA

27%

Predicted winner

ATL

Confidence

64%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

30–28

Winner ATL. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 MIA
• QB yards/attempt−0.5 ATL
• Rushing defense−0.2 ATL
• Passing offense+0.2 MIA