New Orleans Saints at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

NO

68%

WAS

32%

Predicted winner

NO

Confidence

58%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

33–22

Winner NO. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 WAS
• Rushing defense−0.5 NO
• Points allowed+0.4 WAS
• Scoring−0.2 NO