Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots

Before kickoff

TB

79%

NE

21%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

63%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

19–17

Winner TB. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing defense+0.9 NE
• Scoring−0.9 TB
• Home field+0.8 NE
• Rushing defense−0.8 TB