Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens

Before kickoff

KC

49%

BAL

51%

Predicted winner

BAL

Confidence

35%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

35–36

Winner BAL. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 BAL
• Passing offense+0.7 BAL
• Rushing defense+0.3 BAL
• Offensive touchdowns−0.3 KC