Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

DEN

63%

JAX

37%

Predicted winner

DEN

Confidence

43%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

23–13

Winner DEN. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 JAX
• Rushing defense−0.5 DEN
• Points allowed+0.4 JAX
• Passing defense−0.2 DEN