Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers

Before kickoff

DAL

32%

LAC

68%

Predicted winner

LAC

Confidence

46%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

20–17

Winner DAL. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 LAC
• Passing defense+0.5 LAC
• Points allowed−0.3 DAL
• Rushing defense+0.2 LAC