Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts

Before kickoff

SEA

44%

IND

56%

Predicted winner

IND

Confidence

30%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

28–16

Winner SEA. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 IND
• Passing defense+0.4 IND
• Offensive touchdowns−0.3 SEA
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 SEA