Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills

Before kickoff

PIT

44%

BUF

56%

Predicted winner

BUF

Confidence

30%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

23–16

Winner PIT. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 BUF
• Scoring+0.4 BUF
• Passing defense−0.3 PIT
• Points allowed+0.2 BUF