Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Before kickoff

MIA

55%

NE

45%

Predicted winner

MIA

Confidence

30%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–16

Winner MIA. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.8 NE
• Passing defense+0.4 NE
• Scoring−0.3 MIA
• Passing offense+0.3 NE