Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Before kickoff

IND

53%

PIT

47%

Predicted winner

IND

Confidence

59%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

24–28

Winner PIT. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing defense+0.6 PIT
• Home field+0.5 PIT
• Points allowed−0.3 IND
• Scoring−0.3 IND