Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

CHI

59%

JAX

41%

Predicted winner

CHI

Confidence

63%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

41–17

Winner CHI. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Rushing defense−0.6 CHI
• Points allowed+0.6 JAX
• Home field+0.5 JAX
• Passing defense−0.4 CHI