Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs

Before kickoff

ATL

24%

KC

76%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

74%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

14–17

Winner KC. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing defense+0.8 KC
• Home field+0.5 KC
• Scoring+0.5 KC
• Win percentage−0.5 ATL