Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints

Before kickoff

KC

27%

NO

73%

Predicted winner

NO

Confidence

72%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

32–29

Winner KC. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Rushing defense+0.8 NO
• Home field+0.5 NO
• Passing offense+0.4 NO
• Scoring−0.2 KC