Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins

Before kickoff

KC

79%

MIA

21%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

75%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

33–27

Winner KC. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt−0.9 KC
• Scoring−0.6 KC
• Home field+0.5 MIA
• Passing offense+0.4 MIA