Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Chargers

Before kickoff

ATL

32%

LAC

68%

Predicted winner

LAC

Confidence

68%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–20

Winner LAC. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing defense+1.0 LAC
• Home field+0.5 LAC
• Scoring−0.3 ATL
• Rushing defense−0.2 ATL