Washington Commanders at Pittsburgh Steelers

Before kickoff

WAS

24%

PIT

76%

Predicted winner

PIT

Confidence

73%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

23–17

Winner WAS. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.5 PIT
• Scoring+0.5 PIT
• Win percentage−0.5 WAS
• Points allowed−0.4 WAS