Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Before kickoff

IND

72%

HOU

28%

Predicted winner

IND

Confidence

70%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

26–20

Winner IND. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Rushing defense−0.9 IND
• Passing defense−0.5 IND
• Home field+0.5 HOU
• Points allowed+0.2 HOU