Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

Before kickoff

WAS

47%

DAL

54%

Predicted winner

DAL

Confidence

56%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

41–16

Winner WAS. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring+0.5 DAL
• Home field+0.5 DAL
• QB yards/attempt−0.4 WAS
• Passing offense−0.4 WAS