Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Before kickoff

MIA

37%

NYJ

63%

Predicted winner

NYJ

Confidence

63%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

20–3

Winner MIA. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring−0.8 MIA
• Rushing defense+0.6 NYJ
• Home field+0.5 NYJ
• Points allowed+0.4 NYJ