Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Before kickoff

KC

44%

TB

56%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

58%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

27–24

Winner KC. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Rushing defense+1.2 TB
• Home field+0.5 TB
• Turnovers−0.5 KC
• Passing defense−0.5 KC