Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

PIT

70%

JAX

30%

Predicted winner

PIT

Confidence

67%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

27–3

Winner PIT. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Points allowed+0.7 JAX
• Passing defense−0.7 PIT
• Win percentage+0.6 JAX
• Home field+0.5 JAX