Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos

Before kickoff

MIA

50%

DEN

50%

Predicted winner

MIA

Confidence

53%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

13–20

Winner DEN. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.5 DEN
• Scoring−0.5 MIA
• Turnovers−0.4 MIA
• Passing defense+0.3 DEN