Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

Before kickoff

KC

44%

LV

56%

Predicted winner

LV

Confidence

57%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

35–31

Winner KC. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing defense−0.6 KC
• Rushing defense+0.5 LV
• Home field+0.5 LV
• Points allowed+0.5 LV