Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts

Before kickoff

GB

52%

IND

48%

Predicted winner

GB

Confidence

54%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

31–34

Winner IND. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.5 IND
• Rushing defense+0.4 IND
• Scoring−0.3 GB
• Turnovers−0.3 GB