Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

CIN

39%

WAS

61%

Predicted winner

WAS

Confidence

60%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

9–20

Winner WAS. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing defense+0.6 WAS
• Home field+0.5 WAS
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 CIN
• Scoring−0.2 CIN