Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions

Before kickoff

WAS

30%

DET

70%

Predicted winner

DET

Confidence

66%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

27–30

Winner DET. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.7 DET
• Passing defense−0.7 WAS
• Home field+0.5 DET
• Scoring+0.5 DET