San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints

Before kickoff

SF

21%

NO

79%

Predicted winner

NO

Confidence

72%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

13–27

Winner NO. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing defense−0.5 SF
• Home field+0.5 NO
• Rushing defense+0.5 NO
• Turnovers+0.4 NO