New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Before kickoff

NO

55%

TB

45%

Predicted winner

NO

Confidence

54%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

38–3

Winner NO. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.5 TB
• Turnovers−0.5 NO
• Rushing defense+0.4 TB
• Points allowed−0.2 NO