New England Patriots at New York Jets

Before kickoff

NE

52%

NYJ

48%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

52%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

30–27

Winner NE. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing defense−0.8 NE
• Scoring−0.8 NE
• Points allowed+0.5 NYJ
• Home field+0.5 NYJ