Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Before kickoff

LV

47%

LAC

53%

Predicted winner

LAC

Confidence

53%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

31–26

Winner LV. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.5 LAC
• Passing defense+0.3 LAC
• Points allowed−0.2 LV
• Turnovers−0.2 LV