Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons

Before kickoff

DEN

23%

ATL

77%

Predicted winner

ATL

Confidence

70%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

27–34

Winner ATL. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing defense−0.8 DEN
• Scoring+0.5 ATL
• Home field+0.5 ATL
• QB yards/attempt+0.5 ATL