Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

Before kickoff

BAL

53%

IND

47%

Predicted winner

BAL

Confidence

53%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

24–10

Winner BAL. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.5 IND
• Scoring−0.4 BAL
• Passing offense−0.3 BAL
• Rushing defense+0.2 IND