Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Before kickoff

KC

82%

DEN

18%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

70%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

43–16

Winner KC. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring−0.9 KC
• QB yards/attempt−0.9 KC
• Rushing defense+0.5 DEN
• Home field+0.5 DEN